Interest Rates on the Rise

The major stock market indexes were overdue for a pause, and pause they did, by registering their largest weekly declines since 2016.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.1%, the NASDAQ dropped 3.5% and the S&P 500 lost 3.9%.  Bonds did not fare much better with a sharp drop in prices sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to its highest level in almost four years.

Good economic news, including a rise in Pending Home Sales and a strong Employment Situation (Jobs) report for January, led to an increase in investor expectations for rising inflation.  Although the Federal Reserve‘s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted on Wednesday to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at 1.25%-1.50%, they changed their statement on inflation.

The FOMC admitted inflation expectations recently increased, and said it expected the rate of price changes “to move up this year” and stabilize around its 2% objective “over the medium term.”  Additionally, the 10-year inflation breakeven rate has risen to its highest level in over three years.  According to the FOMC policy statement, the economy continues to strengthen and inflation is expected to move higher while the FOMC continues to anticipate further gradual increases in short-term rates.

The Fed Funds futures market continues to predict (with an implied probability of 77.5%) the most likely time for the next 25 basis point rate-hike announcement will take place at the next FOMC meeting on March 21, and suggests there will be an additional two hikes before the end of the year.

In housing news, Pending Home Sales increased 0.5% during December according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  This was the highest reading since last March.  Pending Home Sales were also 0.5% higher on a year-over-year basis.  The NAR stated the December data suggests the housing market will start 2018 with “a small trace of momentum” but expect the recent tax-law changes to weigh on home sales in 2018.

The number of mortgage applications showed a decrease according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey.  The MBA reported their overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index (application volume) decreased by 2.6% during the week ended January 26, 2018.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.0% from a week prior while the Refinance Index fell 3.0%.

Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity decreased to 47.8% of total applications from 49.4% in the prior week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 5.7% of total applications from 5.2%.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a conforming loan balance increased to 4.41% from 4.36%, with points increasing to 0.56 from 0.54.

For the week, the FNMA 3.5% coupon bond lost 104.7 basis points to close at $100.234 while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 18.12 basis points to end at 2.8411%.  The major stock indexes plunged during the week to record their largest weekly declines since 2016.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,095.75 points to close at 25,520.96.  The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 264.82 points to close at 7,240.95 and the S&P 500 Index lost 110.74 points to close at 2,762.13.  Year to date on a total return basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 3.24%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has advanced 4.89%, and the S&P 500 Index has added 3.31%.

This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.45% from 4.28%; the 15-year mortgage rate increased to 3.79% from 3.65%; the 5/1 ARM mortgage rate increased to 3.42% from 3.34% and the FHA 30-year rate climbed to 4.25% from 4.05%.  Jumbo 30-year rates increased to 4.50% from 4.41%.

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart – FNMA 30-Year 3.5% Coupon Bond

The FNMA 30-year 3.5% coupon bond ($100.234, -104.7 bp) traded within a 114.10 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of $101.141 on Monday and a weekly intraday low of $100.00 on Friday before closing the week at $100.234 on Friday.

The bond opened lower on Monday before bouncing slightly upward from a support level.  However, this potentially positive action did not hold as the bond cascaded lower during the week on strong economic news that raised the fear of higher inflation moving forward.  A sell signal from January 26 remains intact with the bond at an extremely “oversold” position.  In fact, it can’t get any more oversold than it is with the %K and %D lines in the slow stochastic oscillator registering zeros, a very rare occurrence.  The economic calendar is very light this coming week and if bonds can bounce back from this extremely oversold position we should see rates attempt to stabilize this week.

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Quarterly Market Report

 

Good news! Our quarterly report indicates the market is as strong as it’s been since the height of the seller’s market ten years ago. The biggest story however in this quarter’s report is that inventory is way down across the region. So what’s going to happen in 2017? Short answer: Basic economics 101. High demand and limited supply drives prices up, which itself draws in more supply. Essentially, my prediction is that 2017 prices will be up a tick by the end of the year. And in 2018, we will have 2005 all over again: sales up, prices up, all good!

Why? Because of inventory. Once we get inventory levels below six months (i.e., we would sell out all our existing inventory in six months at our current rate of sales), we start to see real pressure on pricing. And we’re at or near that level pretty much across the NY region:

  • Westchester: 3.8 SF/2.6 Condos/4.5 Coops
  • Rockland: 4.9 SF/5.6 Condos
  • Orange: 6.4 SF/4.6 Condos
  • Putnam: 5.0 SF/3.7 Condos

That also means, of course, that we need listings!  If you’ve been thinking about selling your home, or know anyone who is, this is likely to be the most active spring market that we’ve had in years. Contact me at 845-480-2366 for a no obligation discussion.

Rockland County Real Estate Market Report

 

2017 Rockland Real Estate Predictions

Good news! Our quarterly report indicates the market is as strong as it’s been since the height of the seller’s market ten years ago. The biggest story however in this quarter’s report is that inventory is way down across the region. So what’s going to happen in 2017? Short answer: Basic economics 101. High demand and limited supply drives prices up, which itself draws in more supply. Essentially, my prediction is that 2017 prices will be up a tick by the end of the year. And in 2018, we will have 2005 all over again: sales up, prices up, all good!

Why? Because of inventory. Once we get inventory levels below six months (i.e., we would sell out all our existing inventory in six months at our current rate of sales), we start to see real pressure on pricing. And we’re at or near that level pretty much across the NY region:

  • Westchester: 3.8 SF/2.6 Condos/4.5 Coops
  • Rockland: 4.9 SF/5.6 Condos
  • Orange: 6.4 SF/4.6 Condos
  • Putnam: 5.0 SF/3.7 Condos

That also means, of course, that we need listings!  If you’ve been thinking about selling your home, or know anyone who is, this is likely to be the most active spring market that we’ve had in years. Contact me at 845-480-2366 for a no obligation discussion.

BETTER HOMES AND GARDENS RAND REALTY QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT:
Rockland County and Hudson Valley Quarterly Real Estate Report

 

4 Highland Place West Nyack Mother Daughter Home for Sale

Rockland County Real Estate Mother Daughter Home Listing. Contact Listing Agent Mike Truiano at 845-480-2366 for immediate info and appointments.

Perfect Mother/Daughter set up. Affordability in Clarkstown South. Over 2200 square feet including finished lower level. . This 5 bedroom homes features large eat in kitchen, spacious living room, gleaming hardwood floors and cedar closet. Freshly painted and newer windows. Private road, dead end street and low taxes. Lower level features separate entrance, second kitchen, laundry room and 2 bedrooms. Perfect for extended families. Moments away from Palisades Mall. 40 Minutes to NYC. Money Magazine Ranks Clarkstown #7 on the Top 50 Places to Live.

Rockland County Mother Daughter Listing

 

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Greatschools.org rates Clarkstown High School with 9/10 rating. 

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Click here to view all Current Mother Daughter Homes for sale in Rockland County NY.

Should I move to Rockland County, NY?

Thinking of moving to Rockland County, NY? Check out these articles from the NY Daily News and our local Rockland Journal News. If you are looking for award winning school districts, easy access and public transportation into NYC, plus lots of parks, amenities and shopping then start your new home search in Rockland County.

http://www.nydailynews.com/content-studio/move-rockland-county-article-1.2810173

http://www.lohud.com/story/money/real-estate/homes/2016/11/11/leaving-city-suburbas/91337024/

And while you are here, take a look at our Winter events guide. There will be much to enjoy throughout our local communities. This Winter Events Guide features many locations where you can enjoy sledding, snowboarding, skiing, and snow tubing. Winter is a festive time of year when you can create lasting memories with your family and friends, so take advantage of everything the community has to offer.

rockland-county-winter-events-guide

Rand Realty’s 1st Quarter Market Report for Hudson Valley

 

Rockland County real estate 1st gtr market report

Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty is proud to present these Local Market Reports. The Local Market Reports are designed to give you a deeper understanding of what’s happening throughout your county — how is the sales activity, are prices changing, how quickly are homes selling, and how negotiable are sellers from their last listing price? When we’re looking at the countywide data, we are generally dealing with a sample size of hundreds of sales.

The Rockland County housing market started the year strong, with increases in both sales and prices that are now reaching levels we have not seen in over 10 years at the tail end of the last seller’s market.

SALES. Rockland sales were up again, rising over 16% from last year’s first quarter and now up over 20% for the rolling year. We’ve now seen sustained rates of growth for almost four years, with transactions up for the last six quarters and 14 out of the last 15. Indeed, sales totals are now approaching “seller market levels,” with the 1,880 rolling year sales the highest total in over 10 years.

PRICES. This sustained increase in buyer demand is having its expected impact on pricing, with prices up almost 3% on average and almost 2% in the price-per-square foot, but falling a tick at the median. For the year, the results are more uniform, with prices up about 3% across the board. After the sharp decline following the financial crisis in 2008, and then a few years of bouncing around the bottom, Rockland prices are now starting their fourth year of modest but meaningful appreciation. They still have a way to go before they gain back the losses suffered after the financial crisis of 2008, but they’re trending in a positive direction.

NEGOTIABILITY. The negotiability indicators showed that sellers are gaining a bit more leverage with buyers. We saw another dramatic decline in the number of homes for sale, for example, with the months of inventory falling over 21% and now reaching the six-month level that usually delineates a “seller’s market.” Similarly, the listing retention rate rose above 96% for the first time since 2006, and the days on market continued to fall. All together, a declining inventory, with homes selling more quickly and for closer to the asking price, tells us that we’re moving into a strong seller’s market.

CONDOS. The condo market in Rockland continues to struggle. Sales were up, but not as sharply as with single-family homes. And prices were down slightly, indicating that buyer demand in the market is not pushing appreciation. With condo inventory actually rising a bit, we’re not likely to see any meaningful price appreciation in this entry level market anytime soon. Going forward, we expect a robust spring market that will continue to drive prices and sales upward. With prices still at attractive levels, interest rates low, and the economy generally strengthening, we believe that Rockland will have its best year since the height of the seller’s market.

Betsy Ross Estates – Orangeburg, NY homes for sale

Welcome to Betsy Ross Estates. This subdivision located in Orangetown NY, features a “Madison Style” Bi-level. This large two floor home style is known for its dual stair case upon entering into the grand foyer. The homes in Betsy Ross estates also showcase a 2 car garage, 4 spacious bedrooms, a master bedroom with 2 walk in closets and a living room on its own level.

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Dual staircase in Madison Style Bilevel

Betsy Ross estates is located in Orangeburg, near the Celtic soccer fields and Veteran’s Park. (40-acre park offers ball fields, soccer fields, batting cages, tennis and basketball courts, a roller hockey rink and two fishing ponds.) Residents of Orangetown also benefit from free golfing privileges at the Blue Hill Golf Course.  (27-hole municipal golf course)

Betsy Ross Street Names: Betsy Ross Drive, Rutgers Road, Fort Lee Place, Bunker Hill Road, Brandywine Drive, Minuteman Circle and Monmouth Court.

Betsy Ross Estates Rockland County NY Real Estate

Located just off exit 6 from the Palisades Parkway. Easy access to NY State Thruway. Near NJ Border. (Bergan County)

Residents of Betsy Ross Estates attend the Pearl River school district.

park near gateway estates orangeburg houses for sale

All active home listing in the Pearl River school district.

 

Click here to view all active homes for sale in Orangeburg.

 

Sales Prices in Betsy Ross Estates
Betsy Ross Estates Rockland County NY real estate Orangeburg